Purpose:
Methodology:
��������������� The term paper is not a group of historic documents, nor do I want to copy any official declaration or governmental policy statements which I think you can find anywhere on the web. Instead, I want to focus on the issue that the people on both sides of the Taiwan strait concerned about, what the motivations behind independence movement and re-unification desire are, and what the future would be. The assessment you will see is based upon my analytical thinking. Having read many articles from authors on both sides of the issue and having visited some BBS stations to receive opinions from both mainlanders and Taiwanese, I think my arguments are valuable and helpful in giving you an understanding of the issue.
�Attitude of mine
����� �����To be honest, I am a Mainlander Chinese. Like other
Mainland Chinese, I am strongly in favor of re-unification, and believe China
should use any means necessary. However, I think the issue cannot be solved by
just denouncing these separatists to be the traitors of China or abusing them
bastards of Japanese. First, we are all human beings. Particularly, they are
the same ethnic background with the same ideology. We should try to understand
each other, and find out where the separatism comes from before we can deal
with the issue. At least, war is terrible and life is precious� always. If the re-unification can only be
achieved through the lives of thousands of soldiers of both sides, then the
price will be too high.
Introduction:
������� ������The Taiwan issue seems to be the most sensitive flash point of all issues in US-China relations. The issue became prominent since China fired missiles as a warning to Lee's visit to the US. China's sensitivity to any provocation on the issue has convinced the US that Taiwan is the issue that it should make no mistake about. First, before we can have further discussion, we have to make clear what the essence of Taiwan issue is.
Taiwan issue is the unfinished China�s Civil War between the CCP and
the KMT.
�������������� As a result of defeat of the Kuomingtang (KMT) in
the Civil War, the Republic of China (ROC) government transferred its regime to
Taiwan in 1949. Taiwan was used as the Counter-Attack base by the KMT and was
regarded by the CCP as the last territory that was to be liberated before the
1980s. The US recognition of the People Republic Of China as the only
legitimate government made the ROC�s attempt to retrieve the Mainland China
become visionary. Taiwan started to take a defensive position at the beginning
of the 1980s. Today, the conflict between the KMT and the CCP tends to mitigate
with the increasing contacts of both sides. Many senior officers in Taiwan
still wish that the ROC could retake Mainland China through its political
influence instead of military.
2. Taiwan issue is the conflicts between Native Taiwanese and the KMT
government.
������������ The 228 massacre and the former tough ruling of the KMT doubtlessly cast a shadow in the minds of many Native Taiwanese. The view that Taiwan is the territory of the Taiwanese and the KMT is an external government is still ingrained in their minds, which serves as a factor of the independence movement.�
3. Taiwan issue is the list of historic problems that involved Chinese desire to wash out the shame.�
�
������������ Taiwan was ceded to Japan after China's defeat in the war of 1895. The history of Taiwan is the history of imperialism and humiliation. Chinese viewed Taiwan as a symbol of imperialism and humiliation.�
�
B. The complexity of the issue:
����������������� The understanding and prediction of the reality
and future of Taiwan should be based on a good comprehension of its political
environment.
A. The KMT
������������ The KMT (or nationalist party) was the party in power. It was founded by Dr. Sun Yet sen, and Three People�s Principals are the foundation of the party .The� KMT , by nature, is supposedly in favor of re-unification (or in their own terms to conduct a revolution on the Mainland.)� But this position to Re-unify with the Mainland is not as firm as when President Jiang Kai Shek was in power.� Also, the KMT government is said to have degenerated and gone corrupted after Lee took presidency.
B. The DDP (Democratic Progressive Party)
����� ������The DDP was founded in 1986, in the aftermath of the burgeoning independence movements. It was first banned during the ruling period of Jiang, but became legal with the removal of Martial Law. The party strongly supports independent movement. Native Taiwanese comprise most of its supporters. The supporters of DDP are famous for creating street violence.
C. The New Party
������������ Led by the dissidents of LEE, the New Party separated from the KMT in 1994. The primary supporters are Mainland Chinese who are not satisfied with the KMT�s corruption and Lee presidency. They call for anti-corruption, anti-Lee, and an anti-independence movement, and they are the firm adherents to three people principals. Although the supporters of the New Party just comprise ten percent of the population, it is said to be the key minority in determining a political balance.
D. The Extreme parties
���������� There are two extreme parties who strongly insist that Taiwan should declare independence now. The latest election result shows that they are not very popular, for most Taiwanese think the immediate declaration of independence as a synonym of suicide.
E. About Lee
���������������� Lee Deng Hui is a very controversial politician. He was selected by Jiang Jing Guo as president and Chairman of the KMT. He overruled all dissidents, particularly these Mainland Chinese after he took presidency. He has a very clear sentimental tie to the Japanese. He said publicly that he was a Japanese before he was 21 years old. Many Taiwanese attribute the deteriorating public security and corruption of the party to his presidency. He has allowed many criminals to become politicians in parliament. Many Mainland Chinese in Taiwan think that Lee Deng Hui has betrayed the Three People Principals. They are also convinced that he gives support to the separatist movement. A common joke is he is a president of KMT in the morning, and becomes a member of DDP at night.
IV The
motivations behind the independence movement
Introduction:
�������� �����We have two different approaches to
understand where the separatism comes from? The idealist approach will focus on
the historic incidents, attributing the motivations of independence to the
ideal of establishing a country that belongs to Taiwanese themselves. By
contrast, the realist approach assumes that the initiative of independence is
the result of economic disparity and the difference between the political
systems. In reality, for the majority of separatists, the independence
initiative is motivated neither by pure idealism nor pure realism but in the
aftermath of both.
A. Idealist
Approach:
1. The disappointment of selling out of the mainland government to
Japan
������������ Taiwan was traditionally viewed by the mainland
central government as the land of barbarians, so Taiwan was ceded to Japan in
1895 unhesitatingly after China was defeated in the Sino-Japanese war. Many
Taiwanese felt that they were sold out by their motherland. Indeed, Japan�s
rule of the island is not as severe as the Japanese occupation of Korea. In
contrast to the post KMT�s ruling of�
Taiwan, many Taiwanese felt that the mainland government is even worse.
�������
�����������
������������� After World War II, Taiwan was returned to China. The
Chinese officer sent by the Nationalist government was very corrupted, leading
Taiwan to a precipitous decline of living standard. As a result, the resentment
erupted. On February 28, 1947, several military police pistol-whipped an old
woman alleged to be selling contraband cigarettes. Her death sparked
island-wide revolts and protests. The KMT suppressed the rebellion by executing
over 20,000 Taiwanese people and wiping out a generation of political and
academic elite � thus beginning the KMT�s reign of terror over Taiwan.
����������������� The KMT ruled Taiwan with an iron fist.
Restrictions were imposed on civil and political rights through 38 years of
Martial Law under which civil liberties and freedom was suppressed. Human
rights abuses were common in the 1950s through the 80s with massive amounts of
political imprisonment, blacklisting of overseas Taiwanese and even execution.
�
Conclusion:
������������
��������������� These separatists claim that the Taiwanese have been ruled by two external governments for two generations, and it is time for Taiwanese to make their decisions concerning their own destiny. I still remember the words form a separatist that can best reflect this feeling: �We are afraid and tired of the experience that the flags have changed when we wake up�. Noticeably, they are he most firm independence advocators no matter how the situation has changed. Also, they are not afraid to go to war.
�������������
Suggestion:
��
�������������� Their feeling is understandable and worth sympathy. However, we should let them know that the fate of the Taiwanese is also the fate of the Mainland Chinese. For instance, the Mainland Chinese are also the victims of Japan's invasion and the KMT's atrocity.� There is no reason to hate the Mainland Chinese or link the suffering to China.
1. Economic
disparity between Mainland China and Taiwan
����������� Ostensibly, Taiwan's Per Capita GDP is 15 times than that of the Mainland. Of course, the GDP measure, which is merely based on the exchange rate, can not reflect the true living standard and productivity of both sides. The true living standard, particularly in the coastal region is not as significant when compared with the GDP. The wrong sense, I believe, comes from the KMT's negative propaganda. In the beginnings of its rule over Taiwan, to encourage its people, the KMT government brainwashed Taiwanese by telling them that their Mainland compatriots are still living in hot water. In the early 1980s, many Taiwanese came back the mainland with commodities like clothes. But they are surprised to see that the Mainland Chinese didn�t �need these aids.
2. The
difference In Political Systems
�������
������������� Compared with Mainland China, Taiwan has a democratic government. The local officers and the president are selected directly by the public. Taiwan has its own legislative and judicial system totally different from the mainland�s. Mainland China, by contrast, is under the communist dictatorship. The Tiananmeng incident also deepened their concern toward the communists.
Suggestion:
����������������� �Natural
instinct of Human beings is selfish. From
this point, we have no reason to blame these separatists. But it doesn�t mean
economic disparity can be an understandable reason to declare independence.
������������ ����������From
the economic perspective, we should convince them on two points. First Taiwan's
economy is not comparable to the mainland. Taiwan has some inherent advantages
over the mainland. There are many factors that contribute to Taiwan's economic
miracle, but these factors can't be achieved by Mainland China in the same way.
Taiwan, in contrast to other provinces, was exempt from the ravages of the war.
During the Japanese colonization, Taiwan underwent rapid industrialization in
order to feed the Japanese war machine. As a result, its industry base is much
better than any other provinces. Also, during the 1960s and the 1970s, Taiwan
surely benefited from the financial aid and open market policy of the US. In
the same period, the progress of modernization in Mainland China was interrupted
by the Culture Revolution. Besides, it is not fair to compare Taiwan, a small
economic entity with Mainland China. To have a small economic entity raise its
GDP and living standard is a much easier task than achieving the same result to
such a big entity as the Mainland. Hypothetically, if Shanghai can have a
chance to be independent and develop its own economy individually, then with
its strong industrial base and its achieved position as a financial center, its
economic scale will be even greater than the economic scale of today's
HONGKONG.
���� ������������Secondly,
we should give them confidence that the future of Mainland will be bright by
convincing them that the Mainland China is just a reversion of Taiwan during
the 1960s and the 1970s. Although it has encountered many problems, and it will
probably encounter many in the future, it still has a chance to catch up.
C. The Emotional Separatists
�������������� Besides the above two mentioned groups, there is a
third type of separatists, which comprises a considerable portion of the separatists.
I call them "emotional separatist". A good example of this is many
Taiwanese who have declared that they have begun to support independence after
Beijing fired the missiles over Taiwan during the election of 1996. These
people are not firm separatists, nor are most of them heavily involved. Their
change, as they explain, is because their feeling were hurt by Beijing's tough
policy. Their position is more likely to be a way to protest Beijing and express
their disgruntled feelings.
V Some hot issues in Taiwan (1)
A. Dispute of Ethnic Identity
����������������
�������������� With the rise of separatist tendencies, more and
more native Taiwanese have begun to identify themselves simply as Taiwanese
rather than both Chinese and Taiwanese. During the 1960s, the separatist
scholars even bring up a new theory that the Taiwanese are a new nation completely
different from Chinese. Such an argument surely can not explain the cultural
affiliation that Taiwan has shared with the Mainland Chinese no matter in languages,
customs, and religions. Both Taiwan and Mainland China use the same official
language. Native Taiwanese themselves are the descendants of Mainland Chinese.
The language they speak is also a derivative of the dialect of the FuJian
province. So many native Taiwanese are not comfortable with it.
� �������������Thus, in
order to make the argument more persuasive, some separatist scholars are narrowing
the definition of Chinese, arguing that Chinese or ZHONG GUO RENG merely refers
to the citizens of the PRC. They call themselves Hua Ren, which is another way
of saying Chinese to identify themselves instead of ZHONG GUO RENG when they
are questioned on the cultural similarity between Mainland China and Taiwan.
They admit that the Taiwanese are the same ethnicity, and shared the same
culture as the Mainland Chinese. Although many polls still shows that around
80% of the people in Taiwan still use the word Zhong Guo Reng to call themselves,
the acceptance of this newly adjusted definition of Taiwanese/Chinese will tend
to goes on in the future.
������ �������������However,
this new definition of Chinese has not achieved a universal consensus in
Chinese society, which tends to make it a big offence to the Mainland Chinese.
The separatist's movement to deny their Chinese identity can easily be set a
link to Japanese. The Japanese occupation in Taiwan convinces Mainland Chinese
these people are the accessories of the Japanese. The pain that Mainland
Chinese suffered from the Japanese invasion in World War II deepened their
resentment toward the separatists.
�B. Dispute on Feasibility of
Independence (2)
����������������� The extreme separatists are a group of reckless
idealists. Their urgent appeal for an independent Taiwan is usually accused of
being irresponsible for Taiwan's security. For example, these separatists
assert that the way for Taiwan to regain its position in the UN is to declare
independence. Their views are denounced to be childish. The opponents ask what
the substantial changes would be after Taiwan declares independence. Taiwan is
too weak to compete against the PRC in the international diplomatic arena.
However, can it stand against the PRC by only declaring independence? To prove
the feasibility of independence, the separatists also try to persuade people by
downplaying the military capacity of the PLA, arguing that the PLA is not
capable of taking over Taiwan with their obsolete weapons. Mainland China, is
concerned with their domestic issues, so it is not willing to fight if Taiwan
declares independence. Besides, they argue the US will ally with Taiwan to
defend against attack directly if war breaks out. Thus, these extreme
separatists claim that the statement of the CCP is nothing more than an
intimidation means and Taiwan has no reason to be afraid. The opponents argue their
point is very dangerous and irresponsible for the country. Besides, since the
rational underpinning of their arguments is merely based on a subjective
hypothesis, their arguments are not persuasive to most people including these Taiwanese
who are in favor of independence. In the future, these extreme separatists will
either be abandoned by the public entirely or forced to adjust their platform
toward a moderated position.
C Conflict Between the Groups (3)
���������������
������������������� The Mainland Chinese on Taiwan, as the minority
group that comprises only 20% percent of the population, are concerned that the
Native Taiwanese could take revenge for the tough ruling period of the KMT government.
The revenge would not necessarily consist of a massacre but rather some
invisible discrimination. Right now, Mainland Chinese have felt pressured for
their inability to speak fluent Taiwanese. For example, many employers in South
Taiwan, where native Taiwanese are the prevailing majority, give the priority
to those who can speak Taiwanese when hiring employers.
���������������� The conflict between the Mainlanders and the native
Taiwanese disappears on the surface. However, the hatred is engraved in the
minds of many native Taiwanese, and makes the issue very volatile when it is
brought to the surface. For example, during the elections, some native
Taiwanese candidates used the provincial background as the issue to call for
support to smear other candidates. Many of Re-unification supporters were
accused of selling out Taiwan due to their provincial background. Some extreme
separatists even shouted in the streets "Chinese pigs get out of
Taiwan".
�������������� It seems this conflict could erupt when it is
spurred.
�
VI The Reasons For Re-unification
A. For the glory a Great China
�������������� Engraved in the Chinese mind is the notion that
unification is the priority for country's greatness. The Chinese emperors have
a strong desire for final acceptance of their authority over those peripheral
regions. They can go to war for nothing any time they fear their authority is being
challenged. Taking a look at Chinese history, we can find that the motivation
for war usually was driven by non-economic reason. Unlike the west, the reason
to conquer is not for any virtual benefits but for face and glory.
B. Concern
that independence will serve as a catalyst for further separation on the part
of Tibet and Xingjiang, and those rich regions.
������������������� Many these rich provinces in China have ever sacrificed
their own economic progress for the poorer regions. For instance, these rich
provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang contributed almost half of their incomes to
the central government in the past years. By contrast, Taiwan can spend all its
income on itself. If China allows Taiwan be independent, then how does the Chinese
government tell these rich regions why they can't have the same
privileges.�
�������������������� Moreover, the successful independence of
Taiwan will encourage independence movement in Xingjiang and Tibet, pushing
China to the verge of separation. Thus, to prevent Taiwan's independence is critical
to prevent further separation.
C. The
Strategic Position Of Taiwan
����������������� Taiwan is such a strategic position for China. It
is like an unsinkable carrier through which China can control The South China
Sea, where China has territory disputes with the countries in East South Asia.
China is afraid that if Taiwan is taken over by some foreign powers, it will be
a potential threat to China's security. For instance, Japan has ever used
Taiwan as their airforce base for bombing The Mainland China in World War II.
Besides, without Taiwan, China will retreat to its internal sea, leaving
affluent oil resources to others.
D. The
humiliation over the last 100 hundred years
���������������� China has suffered a lot from the imperialism and
humiliation of the west for one hundred years, which makes it very sensitive to
the issues of its sovereignty. Taiwan independence will be viewed as the way to
lose face. Also, any attempt to intervene with Taiwan's affair will be
interpreted as continuation of imperialism.
�
VII.
Prediction of the future
A. Declare
independence now?
������������ The major counter force is from the perceived military
threat of the PRC. Most people fear that the declaration of independence will
engender an immediate attack of the Mainland China. Also, they can't achieve a
consensus among themselves. The Mainland Chinese in Taiwan do have a
sentimental tie with the mainland since their parents or grandparents are the
soldiers and officers of the KMT. Besides, many Native Taiwanese still believe
that a unified great China is important to Taiwan itself. Obviously, they can
not fight a war without achieving a consensus among themselves.
B. Re-unify
now?
����������� ���Taiwan doesn't like re-unification simply because of perceived economic and political difference. From China's perspective, launching a war right now is not in China's best interest. �First, the war between two sides will be costly. It will not only be a disaster for Taiwan but also a disaster for the Mainland itself. China is undergoing rapid industrialization and is beginning to enjoy economic prosperity. The result of war will halt economic growth, and simultaneously cause amounts of social problems. The war without provocation will also increase the possibility of US intervention. China will be isolated and harshly condemned by the world for triggering the war. China has stated its policy very clearly that it will not attack unless either Taiwan is intervened by any foreign power or it declares its independence. To conclude, it is not until China can acquire overwhelming preponderance over Taiwan that it can think to take over Taiwan through any military means.
�
C What about declares independence in the
future?
���������������� Not only for the reason that declaration will lead
to an immediate attack of China, Taiwan also can's pull its enormous investment
out of China and break its economic tie with the Mainland. Taiwan is a small
island with indigent resources and a small population. Its economic success relies
heavily on the market and raw materials from the Mainland. The trade between the
two sides goes up steadily over the last decade. Businessmen and entrepreneurs
will be the recipients of the benefits from the tradings. As a foreseeable
result, they will surely become the lobbyists for unification. Also, with the
decrease of economic disparity in both sides, Taiwan's desire for independence
will decline. Taiwan is, by no means capable of resisting unification, nor does
it need to be independent.
D. Unification in the future
�������������� This is the predisposition that is most likely to
occur. However, by what means and in what condition is still unfathomable.�
VIII. Another way to see the feasibility of attacking Taiwan.
A. A big lack
of the traditional discussions���������������
����������������� Doubtlessly, China, with its enormous geographic
size and population, has overwhelming preponderance over Taiwan in any sense.
China can easily smash Taiwan if Taiwan is tied up with the continent.
Nevertheless, Taiwan is an island distant from the Mainland. I have seen lots
of discussions as to the PLA's capability of taking over Taiwan. Most of these
discussions focus merely on the quality of weapons of the both sides. I think
it is needless to list a set of numbers here since you can find them from any
military magazine. Briefly, most people including many military observers are convinced
that China is unable to take over Taiwan in the next fifteen years, for China
deploys less advanced combatants than Taiwan. If just looking at the weapons of
both sides, this conclusion does make sense. However, real war is so different
from playing a video game, in that, the human's effort must be taken into
consideration. It seems that the conclusion of China's incapability precludes
an important factor--the precondition of war. What I mean by precondition is
whether the war is caused by Taiwan's declaration of independence or without
provocation. The result will be totally different under two different
conditions.
B. The assumption the War breaks out under the condition that Taiwan
declares independence
�������������� With the thought that the
war can be avoided if Taiwan doesn't declare independence, the civilians will
ask whether an illusionary name is so precious that �worth gaining at the price of going to a war.
������������ Most of the military officers in Taiwan's army are
Mainland Chinese. The senior Mainland Chinese officers fear that they will be
persecuted as the criminals responsible for the 228 massacre after native
Taiwanese take power. Native Taiwanese will doubt also their loyalty to the new
Republic of Taiwan. Besides, Taiwan's troops are called the army of
"ROC". The solders are inculcated to be the soldiers of the ROC by
the KMT since they joined the army. They will be confused as to whom they will
fight for and whether the war is worth fighting for. Thus, to expect these
people fight against the CCP with their all strengths is impossible. Adversely,
they will turn and blame the separatists for being irresponsible for Taiwan
security.